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Will it be a group led by the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin? Will it be one led by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil?
Two broad possibilities are emerging for a new ruling coalition on Dublin City Council.
Either possible coalition would need the backing of some of the medley of independents to control a majority on the 63-seat council.
Last week, the Labour Party walked away from negotiations to join up with the Green Party, the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin.
Labour want no reduction of the local property tax, when it comes time to set it, and this was a red-line issue, says Labour Party Councillor Darragh Moriarty. The proposed coalition didn’t have a clear majority either, he said.
Still, the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin are working on a shared policy paper that focuses on providing social and affordable housing, safe streets, better public services and an integrated and inclusive city.
Both of those parties ruled out any alliance with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, but are still talking to the Green Party and others.
“Our voters are not voting for us to put Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in positions of authority,” says Catherine Stocker, group leader of the Social Democrats.
If that coalition doesn’t take off there is a possibility of another emerging. This one involving the Green Party, the Labour Party, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Fine Gael Councillor Ray McAdam says his party is keen to collaborate and didn’t rule out the possibility of changing its position on the local property tax, which has been to keep it as low as possible.
“The big thing that I took from the local election campaign, was the need for Dublin city to be cleaner, greener and much more vibrant,” says McAdam.
Independent Councillor Nial Ring says he would be more inclined to back this second coalition, which he thinks would be more stable, as the diversity of opinion among the first is very broad.
“Of course, the government parties are probably going to stick together, that is my feeling on it,” he says.
Dublin City Council doesn’t strictly need a ruling coalition to function. But most councillors said it is better to have one.
“It’s best if there is a majority alliance in place to agree on the priorities for the next five years,” says Sinn Féin Councillor Daithí Doolan.
Independent Councillor Cieran Perry said some agreement is needed to divvy up posts like the Lord Mayor and Deputy Lord Mayor for each of the next five years, as well as deciding who chairs the strategic policy committees.
The idea of a “progressive alliance” was full-on for a few days last week, with talks between councillors from the Social Democrats (10 seats), Sinn Féin (9), the Green Party (8), and Labour (4).
Together, the parties have 31 councillors. They would need at least one other councillor, to achieve 32, the magic number for a majority.
If the left-of-centre parties came together with some left-wing independents it could work, says Stocker of the Social Democrats.
“Is it enormously stable? No,” she says. But the numbers for other potential coalitions don’t stack up any better, she says.
Stocker says that with the rise of the far right, left-wing parties have a responsibility to deliver an alternative and show that they can work together.
Doolan says that Sinn Féin has put forward a progressive policy platform and is keen to work with other parties to agree to it.
The draft document calls for a commitment to the values of inclusivity, equality, accountability, efficiency and fairness.
It outlines key policy areas of housing, community safety, integration and inclusion, a just transition and supporting public services including the re-municipalisation of waste.
Doolan said Sinn Féin won’t be entering an alliance with Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil either. And, “we certainly won’t be talking to three people who got elected, whose policies are toxic. We won’t be doing any business with them,” he said.
But, the Labour Party walked away from those talks for a coalition involving Sinn Féin, citing a failure to agree with that party on what to do about the local property tax.
The exact rate of the local property tax is set each year by councillors, who can choose to reduce it or raise it by up to 15 percent from a baseline.
In recent years, the previous council voted to reduce it as much as possible each year.
That’s what Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael want to do again in this council. But Labour backs charging the baseline amount.
The tax accounts for about 2 percent of the council’s budget for day-to-day operations.
The local property tax is a big issue because the city needs the money, says Labour Councillor Darragh Moriarty. It could amount to €72.5m over the next five years, he says.
“Any ‘progressive alliance’ that puts over €1,000 back in the pockets of millionaires isn’t truly progressive in our eyes,” he says. “That, along with the numbers not adding up, is why we decided to step back from negotiations.”
In the past, the central government ran an equalisation fund – which sent money collected by the local property tax in Dublin to other councils.
That has been scrapped, yet the council still didn’t see the expected uplift in funds, the council’s finance manager said last year. The central government cut grants to the council at roughly the same rate, she said.
Moriarty says council managers have promised that if councillors go ahead with a higher tax, the additional money would remain in the Dublin City Council coffers. This is a major priority for Labour, he says.
Stocker says the local property tax issue is “an absolute red herring”. It is not the most important issue, she says and agreement on it isn’t strictly necessary for a deal.
She supports charging the baseline amount not reducing it, she says. But Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin have been committed to reducing the local property tax below the baseline as much as possible, she says.
“There isn’t a majority to bring the LPT to baseline,” she says, “but we have a lot of common ground with Sinn Féin on other issues.”
Labour was part of the last ruling coalition on the council. The last term’s agreement allowed each party to formulate its own position on the local property tax.
“Everybody is talking to everybody at the moment,” says independent Councillor Cieran Perry, who led the independent group on the council in the last council term.
He says most of the independent councillors will work together as a group, excluding the newly elected, right-wing, independent councillors.
The group, which has around seven members, is still considering whether it would back either potential coalition, says Perry.
Any grouping would need at least 32 members to pass key votes like the budget, he says. There is no obvious solution. “It looks really tight for any alliance,” he says.
If Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party got together with the Labour Party, they could reach 31.
Fine Gael is the largest group and is keen to work with others to deliver for the residents of the city, says McAdam of that party.
“I hope that a centre ground can be found that delivers a progressive alliance for the city and if nothing else we can clean up Dublin,” he says.
McAdam says that the residents he spoke to while canvassing want cleaner streets more than anything. “The overriding priority is we need to get back to basics and provide quality municipal services.”
Fine Gael is open to discussions around the local property tax, he says. “I don’t have a set-in-stone approach.”